The Celtics became the first NBA team this season to reach the “40 Before 20” mark.
The Boston Celtics have the potential to win championships, as anybody who has seen them since October knows. You would think it to be the case, at least.
But Boston cemented its place in the unofficial championship contender club with their victory on Friday. They were the first club this season to meet Phil Jackson’s 40-before-20 criterion after registering their 40th victory of the year.
With 13 titles won both as a player and coach combined, Jackson is a decorated legend and is perhaps the best coach in basketball history. Jackson announced his notion in 2008, during a Lakers comeback led by the partnership between Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol.
“To be considered an elite team, a team needs to win 40 games before losing 20,” Jackson stated.
Easy enough, However, it’s a useful exercise that has a proven track record of weeding out the pretenders and giving a precise picture of the teams who may win the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
The rationale for the regulation makes obvious, particularly when you consider the specific definition of a “40 before 20” unit. Superstar skill at the top is not the sole requirement; roster balance, health, and fourth-quarter calmness are also necessary.
Your health and luck must be on your side above everything else. A club is rarely going to have a lot of injuries and still have a chance to win 56 games or more. As the 2023 NBA Finals reminded everyone, lineup stability mattered in the NBA.
The Cavaliers and Timberwolves have the lowest offensive and defensive rankings among this year’s 40-before-20 prospects. In terms of points scored per 100 possessions, they are ranked 16th and 17th, respectively. The Nuggets are 12th defensively and have a decent chance of moving up to 10th if they have another excellent week. Three competitors—the Thunder, Clippers, and Celtics—are solidly positioned in the top 10 of both rankings.
Is there a perfect 40-before-20 rule? Naturally, no.
Although it may seem obvious that Boston and other top seeds are in the running for the championship, it’s important to consider the opposite outcome: A team’s chances of winning a title are almost likely over if they fall short of this threshold.
Forty of the 44 previous champions have satisfied the 40-before-20 requirement since the 3-point line was introduced during the 1979–80 campaign. The only teams to fall short of expectations were the 2021 Bucks, 2006 Heat, 2004 Pistons, and 1995 Rockets, as the chart below illustrates.
That means that Jackson’s idea has a 90.9% success rate. Additionally, it was completed by all 11 of Jackson’s title-winning groups:
But there are exceptions to every rule, right?
I’m tempted to ignore 2021 because of the peculiar circumstances surrounding that season. It merits an asterisk, at the absolute least. It was the first season following the Covid closure and bubble burst. The players’ offseason was the shortest in NBA history, lasting from October 12, the day after the Finals, to December 1, when training camp officially began. Ten days later, the preseason began with games. Furthermore, there were other occasions where Covid outbreaks forced the postponement of games.
Despite missing the mark by four games, the 2021 Bucks managed to win the East and claim their first championship in fifty years. To make it happen, Milwaukee had
Although the statistics indicates that Phoenix and the Clippers should be compared, it makes sense why they aren’t. A team’s chances of experiencing injuries during the first two months of the season are often higher.
Boston leads the Eastern Conference in first place by five games with about two thirds of the season remaining. They are the only team with a realistic chance to join the “50 before 20” club and are on track for a season with 60 or more wins.
Boston has satisfied every need to be deemed the “favorite,” crossing that one off the list.
After excluding ineffective play, the Celtics rank third in both offensive (121.4) and defensive (112.1) categories. surpassing rivals in points scored per 100 possessions by 9.3
They are expected to make 1,325 three-pointers this season, which would place them second all-time after the 2022 Warriors, who had an unbelievable amount of talent on the wing with Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, and Stephen Curry all bombing from long range.
The Celtics also avoid turning the ball over at a startling rate, which frequently prevents an offense from playing to its full potential. They are only surrendering on 12.6% of their total possessions, which is a little increase from previous year and a top five ranking.
You may also include the fact that they avoid getting into any kind of problems. Right now, Boston has the lowest opponent free throw percentage in the whole league. That might be their season’s most impressive accomplishment when you
